{"id":297,"date":"2026-06-07T11:12:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-07T11:12:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/relocationacrossamerica.com\/?p=297"},"modified":"2026-06-07T11:12:10","modified_gmt":"2026-06-07T11:12:10","slug":"iran-is-trumps-vietnam-and-its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/relocationacrossamerica.com\/?p=297","title":{"rendered":"Iran is \u201cTrump\u2019s Vietnam\u201d \u2014 and it\u2019s going to get a lot worse"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Leon Panetta has been in politics as long as any of us can remember. He started out as a Republican, working in the office of Sen. Thomas Kuchel, R-Calif., in the late 1960s. (Kuchel belonged to the now-vanished species of moderate Republican and actually supported both the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act.) He moved up quickly to become director of the Office of Civil Rights under Richard Nixon.<\/p>\n

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In 1971, Panetta quit the Nixon administration in protest over its racist policies, switched parties and went to work for New York mayor John Lindsay, another Republican-turned-Democrat. In 1976 he was elected to Congress, where he served until 1993. He then became director of the Office of Management and Budget and White House chief of staff under Bill Clinton, and for his final chapter in government served as Barack Obama\u2018s CIA director in the first term and defense secretary in the second. To say he\u2019s got extensive experience would an understatement.<\/p>\n

Panetta has always been a centrist, and I\u2019ve been critical of his \u201cmaverick\u201d track record over the years \u2014 he\u2019s had a tendency to burnish his own reputation to the detriment of those he works for. But at age 87, from his perch as the head of the Panetta Institute for Public Policy, it\u2019s hard to imagine he now thinks he has anything left to prove. So when Panetta appeared on CNN to talk about the Iran war, a subject he is well qualified to discuss, and says that it\u2019s shaping up to be \u201cTrump\u2019s Vietnam,\u201d you can\u2019t help but be a bit startled. If anyone still in public life knows how much freight that phrase carries, it would be him.<\/p>\n

That comparison might sound hyperbolic since Vietnam was a 20-year meat-grinder of a war that cost the lives of more than 50,000 Americans and something like 3.5 million Vietnamese, both troops and civilians. But Panetta drew the comparison based on the argument that Donald Trump\u2018s war was an equally terrible miscalculation of the adversary\u2019s resilience and commitment, where we\u2019re dealing with misinformation and propaganda coming from the U.S. administration and an untrustworthy negotiating partner on the other side.<\/p>\n

In other words, Americans have once again overestimated their own prowess and underestimated their enemy; our own government is constantly lying about the war, and the Iranians are unlikely to stick to any deal without solid verification, which is going to be difficult to manage at best. To state the obvious, the U.S. under Trump is equally untrustworthy, having torn up the hard-fought nuclear agreement negotiated under Obama, which by all accounts the Iranians had been honoring.<\/p>\n

We can add another dimension to this misadventure that makes it much more complicated than Vietnam. That war had a dreadful human cost but it did not threaten the entire world economy the way this one does. The protracted and unresolved dispute over the Strait of Hormuz and the enormous amounts of crude oil that travel through it is pretty dire, and not likely to get better anytime soon.<\/p>\n

\n

We can add another dimension to this misadventure that makes it even more complicated: Vietnam had a dreadful human cost but it didn\u2019t threaten the entire world economy the way this war does.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Fuel prices have spiked around the world since the war started, for obvious reasons. But in fact, they haven\u2019t gone up quite as precipitously as we might have expected, considering that about 25% of the world\u2019s oil supply has been bottled up in the Strait of Hormuz for the past few months. That respite is about to end. Last week,Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said that the \u201cbuffers and the shock absorbers\u201d in the global petroleum market \u201care being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started.\u201d In other words, the reserves his company and others have been tapping \u2014 including the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve, which is supposed to be used only for global emergencies \u2014\u00a0 are about to run out.<\/p>\n

According to Politico, industry executives have been privately warning the White House that prices are about to surge dramatically over the next month. but Trump officials claim they haven\u2019t heard a thing about it. In fact, they insist there\u2019s no supply problem and that as soon as the strait is open, fuel prices will go back down to where they were in February and everything will be hunky-dory. Anyone who buys that line is going to be very disappointed. One expert told Politico, \u201cI\u2019ve never seen inventory numbers fall so much so quickly. It is stunning.\u201d<\/p>\n

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There are other reasons why the prices haven\u2019t risen more sharply, one of which is arguably a huge positive for the long term. As Ryan Cooper writes in The American Prospect, one surprising factor that\u2019s keeping the supply somewhat steady is been green energy. Since much of fossil fuel energy can be replaced by solar power, wind power and battery-powered electric vehicles, Cooper reports, \u201cChinese exports of solar and EVs are soaring, and even very poor countries are buying in bulk.\u201d<\/p>\n

In countries like Egypt, where sunlight is ample and the price of oil has created a massive burden on consumers, renewable energy is an absolute necessity. It\u2019s a godsend that many of these new technologies are available off the shelf right now, and this crisis will likely speed up the energy transition all over the world. Sadly, the U.S. is likely to be left behind, both in consumption and in manufacturing, since our government has perversely placed all its chips on fossil fuels. This week, Trump pledged $700 billion toreinvigorate the dirty, failing coal industryand he\u2019s been halting renewable energy projects left and right, evenspending billions to pay companies to ditch already-approved plans. To quote our illustrious president, \u201cWe aren\u2019t allowing any windmills to go up, and we don\u2019t want the solar panels. Fossil fuel is the thing that works.\u201d So the U.S. is already well behind the curve, and that\u2019ll get worse if the Iran war turns into the Vietnam-style quagmire that Panetta predicts.<\/p>\n

\n

It\u2019s a godsend that many new energy technologies are available off the shelf right now, and this crisis will likely speed up the energy transition all over the world. Sadly, the U.S. is likely to be left behind.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Politically, Trump\u2019s impulsive warmongering is fracturing the Republican Party in ways we could hardly have imagined even a year ago. As I\u2019ve written previously, Trump\u2019s antiwar stance was always a joke. But a lot of his followers believed it, and along with the economic stress it\u2019s causing, this \u201cexcursion\u201d \u2014 in his infelicitous phrase \u2014 is creating a new set of calculations for Republicans.<\/p>\n

The House of Representatives managed to pass a resolution to restrain Trump\u2019s war powers after four Republicans voted for it, a surprising turn of events which sent the president into a tailspin, complaining that they were ruining his negotiations with the Iranians. If that same resolution passes the Senate, which it might, Trump will have to gain congressional approval or withdraw the troops from the Iran theater. It\u2019s a far cry from the veto-proof bipartisan majorities that passed a war-powers resolution against Nixon in 1973, after revelations that he had conducted a secret bombing campaign in Cambodia. But it\u2019s a start.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to imagine that this GOP will muster the courage to confront Trump directly, but then this war has been massively unpopular from the get-go as well as extremely costly. Everyone who\u2019s been paying attention knows it was a huge mistake made by a president who refused listen to those around him who knew this would probably happen and tried to warn him off, even if many of those people won\u2019t admit it now. We\u2019ve been here before: That sounds an awful lot like Vietnam, which was an epic disaster that the country has never really gotten over.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s hope it doesn\u2019t take 20 years to end this war, but there are no signs that it\u2019s going to be over anytime soon, whether Trump declares victory or not. Panetta says he thinks America will be back fighting Iran again in a few years, no matter what happens now. Donald Trump has started another forever war, which was exactly the thing he promised he would never do.<\/p>\n

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We\u2019ve barely begun to feel the economic effects of Trump\u2019s misbegotten war. This fall could get rough<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":32,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[4,5,134,523,524,525,109],"class_list":["post-297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting","tag-commentary","tag-donald-trump","tag-iran","tag-leon-panetta","tag-richard-nixon","tag-vietnam","tag-war"],"yoast_head":"\nIran is \u201cTrump\u2019s Vietnam\u201d \u2014 and it\u2019s going to get a lot worse - Relocation Across America<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/relocationacrossamerica.com\/?p=297\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Iran is \u201cTrump\u2019s Vietnam\u201d \u2014 and it\u2019s going to get a lot worse - Relocation Across America\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We\u2019ve barely begun to feel the economic effects of Trump\u2019s misbegotten war. 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